Projections

Use our projections to see how we expect the number and types of jobs in Washington to change.

Employment projections provide an idea of how many jobs exist within industries and occupations, how the number of jobs is expected to change over time and the future demand for workers.

Our projections show expected change in employment by industry and occupation, the current and projected employment counts, estimated growth rates and average annual openings.

Latest Reports

We have categorized all location-based projections by Washington’s 12 Workforce Development Areas (WDA) plus the state total.

Occupational projections

Estimations of job numbers, job openings and job growth in occupations. Occupations titles and codes use the Standard Occupational Code (SOC) system.

Industry projections

Estimations of job numbers and job growth in industries (categorized by title). We have aggregated these data sets. Aggregated data combines information into a summarized form. This makes it easier for you to see patterns, totals or averages.

Control totals and matrices

Control totals use the Industry Control Total (ICT) - a detailed industry classification system. Matrices use the occupation titles and codes of the Standard Occupational Code (SOC) system.

Report data

Projections dashboard

About this data

We develop two-year, five-year and 10-year projections. We revise these projections annually.

We develop industry projections and convert them to occupations based on staffing patterns gleaned from occupational employment statistic surveys. The occupations-industry matrix displays occupational compositions for each industry for Washington state and Workforce Development Areas. Visit the Washington workforce site to see a map and learn more about the individual WDAs.

We create the matrix for occupational projections and base it on an occupational employment statistics (OES) survey. Industry classification is based on industry control totals (ICT) definitions.

Methodology

Average annual job openings

In our occupational employment projections, we present two sets of estimates for average annual job openings. We calculate one set (BLS occupational separation rates) using the job opening rates the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides and the other one (Washington state alternative occupational rates) using Washington state specific job opening rates that ESD creates.

BLS occupational separations method

The separations method measures job openings created when workers leave occupations and businesses must replace them with new workers. We base this method data on national survey data. In this method, workers who exit the labor force or transfer to an occupation with a different Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) generate separations openings at the national level. This means jobs filled by interstate movement, when workers stay within occupations, are not new jobs.

Find more detailed information about the separation approach on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Separations webpage.

This BLS method does not track turnover within occupations. Turnovers within occupations occur when workers stay in occupations but change employers.

Washington state alternative occupational method

Beginning with the 2017 projections cycle, ESD created a new Washington state specific alternative occupational method to the BLS separations method. The objective was to also track job openings due to workers transferring within occupations. For simplicity, we refer to this method as the alternative method and to the rates as the alternative rates.

We base the alternative method on Washington state wage records, making the resulting alternative rates specific to Washington state.

The alternative rates track openings created by turnover within occupations (i.e., workers stay within occupations but transfer to different companies) and when workers leave one occupation for another or leave the workforce.

The method consists of three major steps

Estimate the total number of annual industry transfers

  • Transfers between industries.
  • Transfers inside industries.
  • New individuals in Washington state wage records (wage file).
  • Exits or individuals who are no longer in the wage file.

Convert industry transfers to occupational transfers

We use occupation-to-industry staffing patterns (shares of occupations for each industry).

Calculate alternative rates

We use total transfers, minus growth or decline, divided by estimated occupational employment for a base period.

Detailed Report

Find an extended explanation of the data, software and employment projections methodology in the technical report: 2019 Employment projections technical paper (methodology) (PDF, 521KB)

Funding

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.