Occupations in Demand list makes its yearly debut

By Anneliese Vance-Sherman, ESD’s chief labor economist

Like a return of a familiar TV drama, the new and freshly updated Occupations in Demand list has made its annual premiere. Some in the workforce development world will love the new characters and plot and some will not. That’s labor-market-data biz.

Even with its complicated relationship with WorkSource staff, partners and community members, the Occupations in Demand list (OID) is a useful and totally binge-worthy tool. And that’s not just my opinion as your chief labor economist. Informally known as the Demand-Decline list, the OID is the most frequently accessed dataset on ESD’s Labor market information page.

'We constantly refer to this list as we build business relationships, training programs and develop measurable goals with our local subcontractors,' said Sean Moore of Workforce Southwest Washington, a Local Workforce Development Board (LWDB) and WorkSource partner. 'This list is also key for our investments, because any training [for customers] we pay for must be directly tied to an in-demand or balanced position.'

What is this well-used list?

The OID list shows whether an occupation in a local area is considered in demand (abundance of opportunities), not in demand (few opportunities), or balanced. It also gives information about employment growth in particular occupations, its wages, typical education needed, and how to access job postings, training programs and other resources.

Jo Ann Enwall (left) of WorkSource Joint Base Lewis-McChord counsels customers. WorkSource staff use the Occupations in Demand list almost daily.

Fundamentally, the OID list is a tool used to support decisions surrounding eligibility for Training Benefits, WIOA and other training programs. The goal is to create opportunities for workers to acquire the skills they need to access in-demand, living-wage jobs in their communities. Eligibility for training programs often hinges on the ability to demonstrate that a prospective student is moving from an occupation that affords little opportunity to one that is likely to grow and support them in the future.

'We use it with every WIOA [Workforce Investment & Opportunity Act] participant,' said Deb Kaiser of WorkSource Kitsap County.

Robin Moreau of WorkSource Clallam County uses it with RESEA customers: claimants who are required to use WorkSource services. 'The list helps me navigate the customer [toward] resources the customer might not have thought about, such as worker retraining, transferable skills, or occupations that are hiring.'

Matt Gladd of WorkSource Columbia Gorge in White Salmon shows customers how to use the list to negotiate a salary or a raise with an employer.

WorkSource business services staff use the list, too, said Karin LaValla of WorkSource Vancouver. '[We use it] when working with local employers and presenting labor market information, viewing the occupational trends, developing customized training opportunities and for [on-the-job training] placement.'

As you can see, the utility of the list extends beyond WIOA, Training Benefits and other training programs. The entire workforce development system uses the list as a starting point for discussions with job seekers and others. It helps them explore how they fit in the local economy and how to plan their careers.

The list’s broad use is also the reason it sometimes frustrates its users. Why does the list sometimes show occupations in decline when employers show healthy hiring? Why does the list paint a different picture than other tools of the trade, like the Bright Outlook tool on the O*Net website?

WorkSource staff, job seekers, reporters, and members of the workforce and economic development communities continually ask me and ESD’s regional economists those questions.

The answers are detailed and best tailored to a specific region and industry. But generally, my answer is this: The OID is one tool in our labor market data toolbelt. It’s not the only tool but it’s often the starting point. Sometimes information in the list might not match other tools or the lived experience of a person. But ESD and its workforce development partners hone it — together — throughout the year to maintain its usefulness.

A product of partnership

The OID is a collaboration between ESD and Washington’s 12 Local Workforce Development Boards (LWDBs). In fact, the list itself is owned and managed by each LWDB to ensure that content is relevant, current and tailored to the needs and assets of each local area.

Here’s how we work together:

To generate the OID list, ESD staff start with occupational projections. State and local projections are based on historical employment patterns and reflect anticipated growth and turnover based on long-term, cyclical and seasonal employment trends.

Then DATA staff incorporate current conditions. Online job postings provide a quantitative measure of demand, and unemployment claims provide a measure of worker supply. A logic model combines these three measures in determining the initial list.

At this point, ESD distributes the list to the LWDBs. They share at their discretion with community stakeholders for evaluation, analysis and engagement.

This step is crucial for several reasons:

• Employment trends, job postings and unemployment claims may not capture specific nuanced measures of demand that affect industries and local areas. Demand for nurses, for example, is affected by different factors than demand for welders. And these nuances may not be adequately captured by historic employment trends, UI claims or online job postings.
• LWDBs often have current local knowledge about upcoming plant closures or new investments by a business in their area.
• LWDBs work closely with stakeholders, such as local colleges, which may have critical industry-specific information about student employment and local businesses.

'Local LWDBs have established local OID committees of local industry leaders,' said Ajsa Suljic, regional economist for the southeast and south-central regions of the state. 'They meet yearly for a review of the initial OID list statistics and discuss its alignment with current happenings in the local area. Their boots-on-the-ground feedback ensures accuracy and relevance.'

LWDBs also work closely with ESD’s regional economists to research and refine the OID list. Together they dive into the nuances of their local economy.

'At the local OID committee meetings, regional economists provide current economic updates and a summary of OID list changes over the year,' said Ajsa. 'We answer questions or provide additional statistics for occupations in question.'

LWDBs take 30 days every summer to do this deep dive with local stakeholders and regional economists. Then they send to ESD any changes before the list goes live in September or early October. LWDBs can also request changes to the list throughout the year, as new information comes to light and as the economy shifts in real time.

'This list has the ability to be flexible when called for,' said the program team at Workforce Snohomish. 'Individuals at the local level identify occupations that are rapidly changing due to extreme economic events, such as COVID or mass layoffs. In these cases, local areas can escalate to the Employment Security Department, allowing the OID list to rapidly adapt to local economic events.'

Do you have any questions about the list?

If so, you’re in good company! Please reach out to ESD’s regional economists. We are the DATA Division’s designated contacts for all questions about the labor market, including the OID list.

Author Anneliese Vance-Sherman is the Employment Security Department’s chief labor economist. She works closely with ESD’s regional economists and focuses on statewide labor market questions.